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Theoretical and Empirical Analysis on Influence Factors of Modern Agricultural Equipment Level

来源:哗拓教育
Chinese Journal of Population,Resources and Environment Vo1.10 No.1 March 2012 Theoretical and Empirical Analysis on Influence Factors of Modern Agricultural Equipment Level in the Process of Agricultural Sustainable Development Yan Tingwu’l_Li Lingchao。,,Wang Ruixue 1.College of Economics and Management,Huazhong Agricultural University,Wuhan Hubei 430070,China 2.Hubei Rural Development Research Center,Wuhan Hubei 430070,China: 3.School of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development Renmin University of China,Beijing 1 00872,China 4.College of Public Management,Shanxi Financia University,Taiyuan Shanxi 030006,China; Abstract:To promote modem agricultural equipment level is one Along with the deepening of China’s economic reforlTl characteristic of constructing and developing modem agriculture and rural labor force transferring to secondary and tertiary in China.This paper makes up stepwise linear regression analysis industries in urban areas in recent years,China’s dualistic model of influence factors of modem agricultural equipment level, economic development has entered the unlimited stage and chooses rural labor,per capita income of rural residents,rural of labor supply after the first Lewis tuming point.During investment,proportion of people at secondary education level and this period,though agricultural output has already been at higher level in per hundred urral labor force and arable land area impacted by labor transfer,the agricultural labor contin— as independent variables,and total power of machine as induced ues to be underemployed,there is still request of transfer, variable.The major results show that the relativity of modem ag— and then cessation of labor is not a solution to the problem ricultural equipment level,rural investment and education level of (Cai,2008).According to Ranis-Fei model,the method to peasants is remarkable,and they are the major influence factors of solve agriculutral problems at this stage is also to improve modem agricultural equipment leve1.Raising investment level of their production efifciency.Upgrading modem agricultural urral infrastmcture construction as well as and research and deve1. equipment level is one of the most effective ways to in- opment and promotion of advanced and applicable modem agricul— crease productivity of land and labor and enhance competi- tural equipment,improving quality and education level of peasants tiveness of agriculture. can accelerate the development of China’s modern agricultural The so-called enhancing modem agricultural equipment equipment effectively in the process of agriculutral sustainable de— level is to use varieties of advanced modern agricultural velopment. machinery from technical and economic sides to equip agri- Key words:modern agricultural equipment level,influence fac— culture,improve the technical level of agriculutral produc- tors,model,stepwise linear regression method,agricultural sus— tion,improve land productivity and optimize the process tainable development of agricultural social and economic benefits further.Distin-- guishing the relationship between upgrading modem agri— 1 lntroduction cultural equipment level and agricultural mechanization is necessary.Enhancing modem agricultural equipment level Upgrading modem agricultural equipment level is the is closely related to agricultural mechanization,but it is not foundation of building modem agriculture and an important a simple concept.The improvement of agricultural produc- symbol of achieving agriculutral modemization.According tion technology and recognition of social and ecological to China’s agricultural development at the present stage, benefits are achieved by establishing modem agriculture, enhancing modem agricultural equipment level is an inevi- and enhancing modem agricultural equipment level is im— table requirement of implementing the scientiifc develop— portant to modem agriculture.Therefore,enhancing modem ment view,developing modem agriculture and promoting agriculutral equipment level is the further improvement of the comprehensive construction of the wel1.off society. traditional agricultural mechanization.It should be noted Received 3 April 2010;accepted 1August 2010 Corresponding author:Yan T ̄ngwu(yantw@126 cow 105 Chinese Journal of Population,Resources and Environment Vo1.10 No.1 March 2012 that the development process of enhancing modem agricul— Law’’in 2004;it created a favorable legal environment for agricultural mechanization and the development of modem agricultural equipment. tural equipment level will be influenced by many factors inevitably,because it is a subsystem of the socio・economic system.The factors of causing differences of agricultural equipment level are mainly natural conditions,socio— economic conditions,political and legal systems,modem agricultural equipment inputs,technology development as well as the management leve1.The relationship among these 2.2 The factors of economic aspect The factors of economic aspect include the level of eco- nomic development,the composition of economic structure and other economic factors.More precisely,those factors factors is complex and interdependent.Studying the char- acteristics of the role of various factors and their respective influencing degree to raise agriculutral equipment level is signiifcant to raising modem agricultural equipment level on China’s local conditions and speeding up agricultural modemjzation 2 Theoretical analyses on influence factors of modern agricultural equipment level In this part,the paper analyses the influence factors of modem agricultural equipment level according to China’s current conditions and discusses the intrinsic elements of the roles and relations between modem agriculture equip— ment level and the various influence factors.The influence factors are discussed from the policy and legal aspect,eco・ nomic aspect and social and natural aspects 2.1 The factors of policy and legal aspect The factors of policy and legal aspect include the trend of national policy,laws,regulations and other policy fac— tors.National policies,corresponding laws and regulations point out directions and provide legal protection for the development of modem agriculutral equipment,which are important factors influencing modem agricultural equip— ment leve1.In the years of the planned economy of China, the development of agricultural mechanization had very strong political overtones and the whole country’s policy became the main driving force for its development.The governments put forward the mandatory development requirements and input excessive resources in order to im— prove the 1eve1 of industrialization as soon as possible.To a certain extent this resulted in the non.equilibrium and unco・・ ordinated development.Effeetive protection of the laws and regulations can increase enthusiasm of the farmers to invest in modem agricultural equipment,and it can also guaran‘ tee acquired benefits of the farmers.China promulgated and implemented‘‘Agricultural Mechanization Promotion 1 06 can be described by economic data of gross domestic prod. uct(GDP),fiscal revenue,the per capita GDP,the rural per capita GDP,the three value—added productions and so on.Enhancing modern agricultural equipment level is the labor—saving process and the process of advancement of capital—using technology.If labor/capital is certain,the marginal productivity of capital can be improved relatively comparing to the marginal productivity of labor.Because this technological progress can raise the marginal rate of substitution of capital to labor under the same condition of labor/capital even if their relative price remains unchanged, they can also increase the capital/labor to reduce the cost of output which is produced by per unit(Hayami and Godo, 2003);that is,we should increase its investment.The eco— nomic development level of a countyr determines the size of its financial revenue and the quantiyt of investment that can be used in modem agricultural equipment.The impor- tance of economic structure is that it can determine the need of modem agricultural equipment and direction of technol— ogy development. 2.3 The factors of social and natural aspect The factors of social and natural aspect include the population(particularly the amount of labor in rural areas), the population quality(particularly the level of education), custom,arable land area,water resources,topography and other natural resources such as climatic and environmental conditions.The population,especially the amount of labor in urral areas relates to the relative price of agricultural pro- duction factors.It is bound to influence the substiuttion of modem agricultural equipment to the labor,and the greater the number of the rllral 1aboL the more unfavorable for the application and development of modem agriculutral equip— ment.The America economist Theodore W Schultz paid at— tention to the important roles of accumulation of the human capital in 1 950s,and pointed out that the fundamental way to transforlTl traditional agriculutre was to invest to the hu- man capital by further study.The higher education leve1 and Chinese Journal of Population,Resources and Environment Vo1.10 No.1 March 2012 the higher the quality of the population,the more smoothly available data,this paper analyses the dominant factor to impact the development of China’S modern agricultural equipment level quantitatively with stepwise linear regres— sion method. we promote the use of modem agricultural equipment and spread modem agricultural technology.The impact of to— pography to the application of modemagricultural equip— .ment is obvious.The flat areas such as plain are easy to the large-scale application of agriculuralt equipment,while the hills and mountains are dificulft to start the correspond— 3.1 The setting of model and the selection of variables This paper selects variables to impact modem agricu1. ing operations.The enough cultivated land,the larger per tural equipment level(using the total power of agricultural capital arable 1and area and the larger demand for modem agricultural equipment are conducive to the development of machinery to designate it)such as,rural labor quantity, rural per capital income,rural investment,and proportion modem agriculutral equipment. of people at secondary education level and at higher level in per hundred rural labor force as well as arable area.In 3 An empirical analysis on influence factors of order to sustain the continuity and the stability of the data modern agricultural equipment level and also eliminate the impact on changing policy,this paper chooses regression analysis data panel(Table 1). According to the foregoing theoretical analysis and the In order to ensure rationality of the 1inear mode1.we Table 1 The correlative variable value of the level of modern agricultural equipment Source:Data are abridgedfromtheRepo ̄ofChina’sAgriculturalDevelopmentin 2007;Abulletin ofthemain data ofChina’s second agricultural censusin 2008(Min- istry ofAgriculture ofthe People’s Republic ofChina,2007;National Bureau ofStatistic ofChina,2008) Table 2 Correlation toeffieient matrix 1 07 Chinese Journal of Population,Resources and Environment Vo1.10 No.1 March 2012 should calculate correlation coefficients among the vari— there is strong multicOllinearitv with the selected vari. ables.Only when independent variable and dependent vari. ables.In this paper,we wil1 use the method of stepwise able are highly correlated,can they be introduced into the liner regression,to relieve the multicOl1inearity,and mode1.Look at results in Tlab1e 2. dispose unfeasible variables.Making parameter estima. From the above correlation coefficient matrix,we can tion about the model,we find that arable area.rural1abor learn that rural 1abor。rural investment,rural educational quantity,rural investment,per capita income in rural res. leve1 and arable area are highly correlated with modem ag— idents and proportion of people at secondary education ricultural equipment leve1.Thus,we can set up Formula(1): leve1 and at higher leveljn per hundred rurallabor force. YI 8 +8、X l+8 h+8 +8 +8 sl+ul 1、 are al1 fit f0r Formula(11.From Table 1。the Pearson The meanings of all variables in model: , l is variable coe衔cient between arable area and modern agricultural coefifcient. is a dependent variable.and means modem equipment leve1 is-0.956 which is not up to the actual agricultural equipment level reflected by total power of conditions.Therefore,we can get Formula r2): agricultural machinery.Xn is an independent variable and Yi 8o+8、X l+8 +8 3i+8 +u 02、 means rural labor quantity,whose estimated coe币cient is Then we make the parameter estimated by Formula to be minus. .is an independent variable and means per f21.The coe币cient of rurallabor quantity can not pass capita income in rural residents.which estimated coe伍cient is to be plus. is an independent variable and means rural the T-test(it takes significance level with 5%in test. investment whose estimated coefficient is to be plus. is p=0.837>0.05).that is.there is no difference between re. 1ated coefifcient and 0,so we dispose rural labor quantity an independent variable and means proportion of people at secondary education level and at higher level in per hun. (Table 3),and get Formula(3). dred rural labor force.whose estimated coefficient is to Yt 8o4-B n4-8 +8 +/x be plus. is an independent variable,and means arable At the same time,rural per capita income regression co— area,whose estimated coc艏cient is to be plus. is re. sidua1 term efifcient is minus(Table 3),which also does not correspond to the reality,so we remove the this variable and get For- 3.2 An analysis of process mula f4): Y.=8 +8 +8 4+u In the correlation coefifcient matrix,we can find that The final two variables are proportion of people at sec- Table 3 Coefifcients after disposing rural labor quantity 1 08 Chinese Journal of Population,Resources and Environment Vo1.10 No.1 March 2012 Table 5 The ifnal results of eoefifcients ondary education level and at higher level in per hundred the coefifcient of proportion of people at secondary educa— rural labor force and the rural investment.With the good— tion level and at higher level in per hundred rural labor hess.of-fit test.we can see that R =0.995.which means the ofrce is 2542.63.It means that.when other variables remain total fitted value has a good result. unchanged,proportion of people at secondary education From the variance analysis of Table 4.it shows that re. level and at higher level in per hundred rural labor force in. gression term can explain the main source of total variation; creases one unit(1%),then modem agricultural equipment that is,the explanatory variables can explain the changes of level(the total power of agricultural machine)increases dependent variables wel1.Table 5 lists the results of regres— 2542.63 unit(10,000 Kw). sion coefficients.Observing the T-statistic,with respect tO rural investment,T:4.785,with respect to proportion 4 Conclusions and recommendations of people at secondary education level and at higher level in per hundred rural labor force.T=14.019.It shows that 4.1 Basic conclusions there is an obvious c虢ct in the confidence level of 5%.The F statistic is also an obvious effect in the confidence level This paper analyzes the influence factors of modern of5%. agricultural equipment level by stepwise linear regression analysis method.Selected variables of regression analysis reflect different influences brought by economic conditions 3.3 An analysis on results in rural areas,the development of technology and resource The model of parameters evaluation is shown in the For- status.Modern agricultural equipment level is highly tel- mula(5): evant to the rural investment,per capita income of rural residents.the rural labor force and educational attainment =0.777 +2542.63 一74237.26 (5) of the peasants,etc.The regression result shows that mod— We can analyze the marginal effects of independent vari— em agricultural equipment level has a significant correla— ables by use stepwise linear regression method:the coef- tion with rura¨nvestment and educational attainment of the ifcient of rural investment variables is 0.777.It means that. peasants.That is to say,rural investment and educational when other variables remain unchanged,rural investment attainment of the peasants are the critical factors to modem increases one unit[(hundred million Yuan(RMB)],then agricultural equipment leve1.In this paper,however,the modern agricultural equipment level(the total power of panel data scale is limited.which needs to be added for fur_ agricultural machine)can increase O.777 unit(1 0,000 Kw); ther study later. 1 09 Chinese Journal of Population,Resources and Environment Vo1.10 No.1 March 2012 4.2 Policy recommendations For the purpose of promoting the modern agricultural equipment level,enhancing the construction of modem ag— riculture and new village construction,.policy recommenda- ions are asfoHows:t ants and CalTy out training on the use of advanced agricul- uralt equipment systematically for peasants. Educational attainment ofpeasants is an important factor to promote modem agricultural equipment leve1.Yet in the present stage,the low education level of peasants and the conservative idea they possess are restrictions for Chinese peasants to use the modern agricultural equipment suc- cessfully.We should strengthen the education of the rural areas and train peasants to leam about technology,so that (1)Accelerate the construction of policies and regula— tions of promoting modem agricultural equipment leve1. Through pohcy formulation,we can guide the rapid and stable development of equipment level and increase peas— ants’enthusiasm for the development of modem agricultur- la equipment.Now,we should construct the sound macro— administration policy and accelerate the construction of hte modem agricultural equipment standardization system,in order to improve the management level of operation quality. In addiiton,the policy should correspond with the current China’s modem agricultural development status.What is the most important is to avoid seeking speed and quantity without caring about the quality. (2)Enlarge the investment quantiyt to rural infrastruc- ture,research and development disbursement of advanced modern agricultural equipment.Strengthen the extent to agricultural machinery purchase subsidy,and carry out the subsidy policy in practice. Better rural infrastructure can play a big role in operat- nig advanced agricultural equipment.We should improve the relevant infrastructure,such as roads,water conser.- vancy and power system,etc.At hte same time,agriculutral item funds should give more money to farmers who can buy more advanced suitable agricultural equipment.What’s more,we should build a new pattern of agricultural equip— ment investment.For example,national investment is the guide;collective and farmers are the main force,and credit investment can be the supplement.In addition,we should ensure the subsidy policy just,fair and open. ;Black case work”operation will be forbidden thoroughly. (3)Improve the qualiyt and education level of the peas-- 110 they can possess advanced ideas.The key way is to update the training concept,improve the quality and method of training for local government,and carry out more training course about how to use modem agricultural equipment ef- fectively. Acknowledgements:This paper is one of the research outputs of the Second China Agricultural Census Projects(iProgram NO.N1203); Art Development Fund of Ocean University of China(Project No. H07YB02). References cM F.2008.The choice of Chinese agricultural development policy after Lewisian turning point.Chinese Rural Economy.。(8):6 1 7(in Chinese with English abstract) Hayami Godo 2003.Theory ofAgricultural Economics.Beijing: Chinese Agricultural Press:127——128(in Chinese wiht English ab-・ stract)一 Ministry of Agriculture of the People’s Republic of China.,2007.The Report of China’s Agriculutral Development.Available online: WWW.agri.gov.cn/sjzl/baipshu.htm(in Chinese with English ab-- stract) National Bureau of Statistic of China,,2008.A bulletin of the main data of China’s second agricultural census.Available online: www.stats.go>.crdtjgb/nypcgb/qgnypcgb/t20080221  ̄02463655. htm fin Chinese wiht English abstract) 

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